Jon Ossoff is Polymarket's favourite to win the 2028 presidential election, at 21% to JD Vance's 19%. In the nominee markets, Jon Ossoff leads for the Democrats at 26% and JD Vance for the Republicans at 38%. Traders give Democrats a 68% chance of winning the White House.
Who Will Win the 2028 Presidential Election?
| Candidate | Chance | Odds | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 21% | 4.84 | ▲ 11.3 |
| JD Vance | 19% | 5.25 | ▲ 1.9 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | 8.23 | ▼ 0.5 |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | 10.93 | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 7% | 13.79 | ▼ 6.9 |
| Ron DeSantis | 6% | 17.39 | ▲ 3.8 |
| Kamala Harris | 3% | 28.99 | ▼ 0.7 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 37.74 | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2% | 40.82 | — |
| James Talarico | 2% | 58.82 | — |
Positions in this market earn Polymarket's holding reward, currently 3.25% a year, paid daily.
Democratic Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Chance | Odds | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 26% | 3.78 | ▲ 10.9 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17% | 5.88 | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 8.03 | ▼ 4.0 |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 21.98 | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4% | 22.99 | ▼ 0.8 |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 22.99 | ▼ 0.9 |
| Andy Beshear | 4% | 26.32 | — |
| James Talarico | 3% | 37.74 | — |
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | 42.55 | ▲ 0.5 |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 48.78 | — |
Republican Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Chance | Odds | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 38% | 2.66 | ▼ 2.4 |
| Marco Rubio | 20% | 5.12 | ▲ 1.8 |
| Ron DeSantis | 13% | 7.72 | ▲ 9.4 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 4% | 26.32 | ▲ 3.3 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 29.41 | — |
| Ted Cruz | 3% | 39.22 | — |
| Thomas Massie | 2% | 44.44 | ▲ 1.5 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | 60.61 | — |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 74.07 | ▲ 0.6 |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 76.92 | — |
How to Read the 2028 Odds
Every price on Polymarket is a probability. A candidate trading at 20¢ pays $1 if they win, so the market gives them a 20% chance. That’s decimal odds of 5.00, fractional 4/1 or American +400. The tables convert every price for you.
The three markets are linked. To win the presidency, a candidate almost always has to win their party’s nomination first, so their winner price should sit close to their nominee price multiplied by their party’s chance of taking the White House. When one market drifts away from the other two, traders are disagreeing about something: the party’s chances, or the candidate’s appeal beyond their own party.
Holding a Position Until 2028
A market that settles in November 2028 sounds like money locked away for two years. It doesn’t work like that, for two reasons.
You can trade out at any time. Every share can be sold at the market price whenever you like, so you never have to hold to the result. Most of the movement between now and 2028 comes from candidates rising and fading as the race takes shape, and you can trade those swings instead of waiting for the final answer.
You’re paid to hold. These markets currently pay Polymarket’s holding reward: 3.25% a year on the value of your position, paid out daily. A position you were going to hold anyway earns a return while it waits. Polymarket sets the rate and can change it.
Fees
Like Polymarket’s other politics markets, the 2028 markets charge a taker fee when your order fills against one already on the book: shares × 4% × p × (1 − p). At a 50¢ price that’s 1¢ a share, and it shrinks towards either end. A limit order that waits on the book pays nothing. Work out the cost of any trade with the fee calculator.
How the 2028 Markets Settle
- Winner: the person who wins the 2028 presidential election, once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called it for the same candidate. If they haven’t by January 20, 2029, the market settles on whoever is inaugurated.
- Nominees: the person who wins and accepts their party’s 2028 nomination for president, going by official party sources. A replacement before election day doesn’t change the result.
See how markets resolve for who decides the outcome and how disputes work.
The 2026 Midterms
Democrats won both the Senate and the House in the November 2026 midterms. The 2026 midterm results page has every Senate and governor race and the final seat counts.
Getting Started
Create a Polymarket account here to trade the 2028 election markets. Polymarket’s availability depends on where you live, so check your country first.
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