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PredictIt Review 2026: Is It Still Operating?

PredictIt review 2026: is it still operating after the CFTC case, what its 10% profit fee and 5% withdrawal fee cost you, whether it's legal, and how it compares to Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Tom Hill Independent prediction-market educator Follow on X
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PredictIt is a small, US-only prediction market for political and financial events. It has traded since 2014, charges 10% on profits plus a 5% withdrawal fee, and survived a 2022–2025 CFTC shutdown attempt that ended in a settlement raising its per-position cap to $3,500.

This review is independent. This site is not affiliated with, operated by or endorsed by PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi or any other platform, and nothing here is betting advice.

What Is PredictIt?

PredictIt is a US-based online prediction market for political and financial events. It launched on 3 November 2014 and is a project of the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a non-profit that runs it for educational purposes and is supported by Aristotle Inc. Its office is in Washington, DC.

Two facts shape everything else about it:

  • It is US-only. Only US citizens can trade on it.
  • It is small. PredictIt is a materially smaller venue than Kalshi or Polymarket. We have not verified a current volume figure, so treat “small” as the honest description rather than any number.

It was created by John Aristotle Phillips in collaboration with Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand — the academic connection that underpins its research framing.

How Does PredictIt Work?

The mechanics are the same standard prediction-market model you will see on any other platform:

  • You buy shares in the outcome of a question. A share pays $1.00 if the event happens and $0.00 if it does not.
  • The share price is the market’s read on the probability. A share trading at $0.60 implies roughly a 60% chance.
  • You can generally sell before the event resolves rather than holding to the end.

Trading runs through a continuous double auction — the same matching model used by stock exchanges. For every person who predicts an event will happen, there must be a counterparty predicting it will not. PredictIt does not take the opposite side of your trade; it earns its money from fees instead.

Jargon check: a “double auction” just means buyers post the prices they will pay and sellers post the prices they will accept, and orders match when the two meet.

Is PredictIt Still Operating in 2026?

Yes. Getting there took three years of litigation, and the sequence matters:

  1. October 2014 — PredictIt began operating under a no-action letter granted by the CFTC. A no-action letter is a regulator’s statement that it will not enforce a rule against an activity, as opposed to a full license. Its original conditions capped each question at 5,000 traders and each individual investment at $850 per question, modelled on the Iowa Electronic Markets.
  2. 4 August 2022 — the CFTC withdrew the no-action letter, finding Victoria University had not operated in compliance with its terms, and directed that all remaining contracts and positions be closed or liquidated by 11:59pm EDT on 15 February 2023.
  3. September 2022 — PredictIt and Aristotle International sued the CFTC in the US District Court for the Western District of Texas to block the action.
  4. 26 January 2023 — the Fifth Circuit granted a temporary injunction, allowing PredictIt to keep operating past the CFTC’s deadline.
  5. July 2025 — PredictIt won. The Fifth Circuit held in Clarke v. CFTC that CFTC no-action letters are reviewable “licenses” rather than unreviewable agency inaction. The district court then vacated the CFTC’s withdrawal of the no-action relief and enjoined the shutdown.
  6. Aftermath — under the new agreement with the CFTC, the $850 single-contract cap was raised to $3,500 and the 5,000-trader-per-market cap was cancelled.

So the honest summary is: PredictIt is operating, its caps are looser than they used to be, and its legal basis is a court-backed no-action agreement rather than a full exchange designation. We cannot tell you what further changes, if any, followed the 2025 settlement.

What Are PredictIt’s Fees?

This is the fact most often reported wrong elsewhere, so here it is precisely:

PredictIt charges 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment, plus a 5% withdrawal fee.

A few things follow from that:

  • Both charges bite on money you make, not on the size of your trade. If you buy at $0.50 and settle at $1.00, the 10% applies to the $0.50 gain, not the full $1.00.
  • The 5% withdrawal fee applies to what you take out, so it stacks on top of the profit fee for a winning trader.
  • A losing trade pays no profit fee, because there is no earnings in excess of the original investment — but you still lost your stake.

How that compares: Kalshi and Polymarket charge per-trade fees instead, which typically work out cheaper for someone with a steady winning record. PredictIt’s structure is simple and predictable, but for a profitable trader it is the more expensive of the three. We are not stating a current fee schedule beyond the 10% and 5% structure; check predictit.org before you trade, since terms can change.

Yes — but with a caveat that matters. PredictIt’s legal footing is a no-action letter from the CFTC, first granted in October 2014 and now backed by the July 2025 court ruling that vacated the CFTC’s attempt to withdraw it.

That is different from how Kalshi operates. Kalshi is a designated contract market (DCM) — a formal CFTC exchange designation it has held since November 2020. A DCM is a license to operate an exchange; a no-action letter is a statement that the regulator won’t enforce against a specific activity. The practical upshot:

  • PredictIt is operating lawfully today under court-backed relief.
  • Its basis is narrower and less settled than a full exchange designation.
  • The 2022–2025 episode showed that this basis can be contested.

If you are weighing regulatory certainty as a factor, that distinction is real. This is general information, not legal advice, and it applies only to US citizens, since nobody else can trade there.

Does PredictIt Require KYC?

PredictIt is open only to US citizens, which means you should expect to confirm your eligibility and identity when you sign up — a venue restricted to citizens of one country cannot verify that without checking who you are.

We cannot state precisely which documents or checks PredictIt asks for today, or how long verification takes, because we have not verified it. We also cannot confirm the deposit methods it accepts today — only that it is a fiat venue open solely to US citizens, so no cryptocurrency is required. What is verified is the constraint itself: US citizens only. If you are outside that group, no amount of KYC will get you in.

Because PredictIt’s costs depend on what you make rather than on trade size, a payout calculator is genuinely useful: take your gross profit on a market, subtract 10%, then allow for the 5% withdrawal fee on what you take out.

What Happened to PredictIt?

In plain terms, the story runs like this:

  • 2014 — PredictIt launches under CFTC no-action relief, with tight caps: 5,000 traders per question and $850 invested per question.
  • August 2022 — the CFTC pulls that relief and orders everything closed by mid-February 2023.
  • September 2022 — PredictIt and Aristotle sue to stop it.
  • January 2023 — the Fifth Circuit pauses the shutdown, and the market keeps running.
  • July 2025 — PredictIt wins outright: the withdrawal is vacated, the shutdown is enjoined, and the new agreement lifts the position cap to $3,500 and drops the trader cap entirely.

The practical takeaway for a user in 2026: the platform you log into today is the same website, with a looser cap structure and a legal position that has now been tested in court and survived. We cannot say whether new market categories were added after the settlement, and we won’t speculate.

PredictIt vs Polymarket

These two are often compared because both are political-market venues — but they are not close in scale or structure.

PredictIt

  • US citizens only.
  • Ordinary dollars in and out — no crypto required.
  • Fees are 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawal.
  • Small venue, narrow focus on US politics and financial events.

Polymarket

  • Polymarket’s international exchange is the largest crypto-native prediction market, and it is close-only for US IP addresses — existing positions can be closed, but no new ones opened.
  • Polymarket US is a separate, CFTC-regulated exchange open to US residents with full KYC.
  • Trades in crypto (its trading currency is a stablecoin), which is a real barrier for someone who has never used a wallet.
  • Far broader market coverage and much deeper liquidity on major markets.

Where that leaves the comparison: if you want the widest selection and deepest books, Polymarket is the bigger venue — but US residents must go through the regulated Polymarket US exchange and complete KYC. If what you want is a simple, fiat, politics-only experience as a US citizen with no crypto at all, PredictIt is easier to start with. On cost, Polymarket’s per-trade model is generally cheaper for a profitable trader than PredictIt’s 10%-plus-5% structure.

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PredictIt vs Kalshi

Kalshi is the closer natural rival, because both are US-facing and both let you use dollars.

PredictIt

  • US citizens only.
  • No-action relief basis, court-tested but not a DCM designation.
  • 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawal.
  • Small, politics-and-financials focused.

Kalshi

  • The longest-established CFTC-regulated exchange, a designated contract market since November 2020.
  • Accepts USD directly.
  • Far broader catalogue — sports, politics, crypto, economics, finance, culture, weather and more.
  • Deeper liquidity and a formal regulatory license.

Where that leaves the comparison: Kalshi is the broader, more heavily regulated venue and is generally cheaper for someone who wins regularly. PredictIt’s genuine edges here are its long continuous operating history in US political markets — it has been running since 2014 — and its academic-research lineage, which shaped how it was built and which no other venue shares. If your priority is regulatory standing, breadth or cost, Kalshi is the more conventional choice. If your interest is specifically the history of US political markets, PredictIt is the one with the longer track record.

Who PredictIt Is and Isn’t For

PredictIt suits you if:

  • You are a US citizen and want to trade US politics with ordinary dollars.
  • You do not want to touch cryptocurrency.
  • You value a venue with the longest continuous history among US political markets.
  • You want a simple, single-purpose platform without a large catalogue to navigate.
  • You are trading at modest size and can live with thinner books.

PredictIt is not for you if:

  • You are not a US citizen — there is no workaround.
  • You want breadth across sports, crypto, culture and macro, not just politics.
  • You want the deepest liquidity and tightest spreads available.
  • You want the lowest cost on winning trades — a per-trade fee model like Kalshi’s or Polymarket’s is usually cheaper for a profitable trader.
  • You want the strongest regulatory footing — a full DCM designation is a firmer basis than no-action relief.

The Bottom Line

PredictIt deserves to be described fairly, because it is easy to dismiss and it shouldn’t be. It has been trading since November 2014, it is the longest continuously operating US political prediction market, it takes plain dollars with no crypto, and it beat the CFTC in court over a shutdown order that would have ended it. For a US citizen who wants to trade US politics simply, those are real advantages.

Its limits are just as real. It is small, it is closed to anyone who is not a US citizen, its 10%-on-profits plus 5%-withdrawal structure is more expensive for a winning trader than either Kalshi or Polymarket, and its legal basis rests on no-action relief rather than a DCM designation. We have deliberately left out figures we could not verify — current volumes, user counts, payout times, deposit methods and post-2025 market categories — because guessing about a platform this poorly documented would make the review less useful, not more.

If you are a US citizen who wants a simple political-market venue and no crypto, PredictIt is a reasonable place to look, at modest size. If you want a broader catalogue, deeper books, a formal regulatory license and lower costs on winning trades, Polymarket and Kalshi are the stronger venues — and both are worth comparing before you commit.

If you decide the broader venue is the better fit, you can create a Polymarket account here.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the PredictIt app?
PredictIt is a US-only prediction market for political and financial events, accessible through its website at predictit.org. It launched on 3 November 2014 and is run by the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a non-profit, for educational purposes. It is not a sportsbook or a general betting app — its focus is real-world political and financial outcomes.
Does PredictIt have a house?
Yes, but in a specific sense. PredictIt does not take the other side of your trade. Trades are matched through a continuous double auction: for every trader predicting an event will happen, there must be a counterparty predicting it will not. PredictIt earns from fees — 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment, plus a 5% withdrawal fee — not from holding a position against you.
Does PredictIt have 2026 Senate markets?
PredictIt's business is US political events and it has long carried election markets, so 2026 election markets are its natural territory. We would not state a specific list of 2026 Senate seats that are listed at any moment, because its catalogue changes and we have not verified the current line-up. Check predictit.org directly for what is open today.
Is PredictIt shutting down?
No. PredictIt was ordered to close under a CFTC action in 2022, but the Fifth Circuit granted a temporary injunction in January 2023 that let it keep operating, and in July 2025 it won: the court vacated the CFTC's withdrawal of its no-action relief and blocked the shutdown. It is still operating in 2026 under a new agreement with the CFTC.
What are PredictIt fees?
PredictIt charges 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment, plus a 5% withdrawal fee. Both apply to money you make, not to your stake. That structure is simple but expensive for a winning trader compared with Kalshi and Polymarket, which charge per-trade fees instead. Check predictit.org for the current schedule before trading, as terms can change.
PredictIt vs Polymarket — which is better?
They serve different people. PredictIt is US-citizens-only, uses ordinary dollars with no crypto, charges 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawal, and offers a narrow political and financial catalogue. Polymarket's international exchange is the largest crypto-native prediction market and is close-only for US IP addresses, while a separate CFTC-regulated Polymarket US exchange is open to US residents with full KYC. If you want breadth, depth and lower effective costs, Polymarket is the larger venue; if you want a simple fiat, politics-only experience inside the US, PredictIt is a reasonable fit.
PredictIt vs Kalshi — which is better?
Kalshi is the longest-established CFTC-regulated exchange (a designated contract market since November 2020) and accepts US dollars directly, with far broader market categories and deeper liquidity. PredictIt is US-citizens-only, much smaller, and charges 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawal rather than per-trade fees. PredictIt's edge is its long continuous history in US political markets and its academic-research roots. For most US users, Kalshi is the broader and cheaper venue.
How does PredictIt work?
You buy shares in the outcome of a question — for example, whether a bill passes or a candidate wins. Shares trade between $0.00 and $1.00, with the price reflecting the market's view of the probability: a share at $0.60 implies roughly a 60% chance. If the event happens, shares settle at $1.00; if it does not, they settle at $0.00. Trading runs through a continuous double auction, so every buyer needs a matching seller.
Is PredictIt legit?
It is a real, long-running venue, not a scam: it has operated since November 2014 as a project of a non-profit research consortium, and it successfully challenged the CFTC's attempt to shut it down. That said, 'legit' is not the same as 'low risk' — it is a small market with thin books, and trading prediction markets can lose you money. Treat any platform as a tool, not an endorsement.
Is PredictIt legal?
PredictIt operates under a no-action letter originally granted by the CFTC in October 2014. In July 2025 a federal court held that such no-action letters are reviewable 'licenses' and vacated the CFTC's 2022 attempt to withdraw PredictIt's relief, allowing it to keep operating. So its current legal footing is a court-backed no-action agreement rather than a full CFTC exchange designation — legal, but on a different regulatory basis than Kalshi.
PredictIt reviews — is it worth using?
Worth it depends on what you want. PredictIt suits a US citizen who wants to trade US politics with ordinary dollars and no crypto, and who values its long track record. It is less suitable if you want market breadth, deep liquidity, international access, or the lowest cost on winning trades. It is a small venue, and its fees are higher than either Kalshi's or Polymarket's for a profitable trader.
What happened to PredictIt?
In August 2022 the CFTC withdrew PredictIt's no-action letter and ordered all contracts closed by 15 February 2023. PredictIt and Aristotle International sued, the Fifth Circuit granted a temporary injunction in January 2023, and in July 2025 PredictIt won: the court vacated the withdrawal and enjoined the shutdown. Under the resulting agreement its $850 per-contract cap rose to $3,500 and the 5,000-trader-per-market cap was cancelled.
What is PredictIt's withdrawal time and withdrawal fee?
The withdrawal fee is 5% — that much is confirmed as part of PredictIt's fee structure. Processing times are not something we can state accurately here; we have not verified current payout timelines, so check predictit.org for the latest. Again, the 5% applies to the amount you withdraw, so plan for it when you size positions.