You backed a team at long odds before the season, and now they’re top of the table with a month to go. The bet is worth a lot more than you paid for it, and you’d like to make sure you get something out of it. That’s what a hedge does: a second bet on the other side that locks in a result whichever way it goes.
This guide covers the formula, when a partial hedge beats a full one, and where to hedge so you don’t hand the profit back in fees. You can run your own numbers in the hedge calculator.
What Hedging a Bet Means
A hedge is a bet against your own position. If your first bet wins, the hedge loses, and the other way round. Sized correctly, the two together guarantee a profit, or limit a loss, whatever happens.
Hedging makes most sense on bets that have moved a long way in your favour:
- Futures and outrights: league winners, championships, awards, often held for months
- The last leg of a parlay, when every other leg has come in
- In-play, when your team has taken the lead and the price has shortened
The Hedge Formula
A full hedge pays the same either way:
Hedge stake = original stake × odds taken ÷ hedge odds
Example. You bet $100 at 5.00 on a team to win the title. With a few games left, the odds on them not winning are 1.60.
| Hedge stake | If your team wins | If they don’t | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No hedge | $0 | +$400 | −$100 |
| Full hedge | $312.50 | +$87.50 | +$87.50 |
| Half hedge | $156.25 | +$243.75 | −$6.25 |
The full hedge turns a bet that could pay $400 or lose $100 into a guaranteed $87.50. The half hedge keeps most of the upside and almost covers your stake.
Full Hedge or Partial Hedge
The most common mistake I see is full hedging by default. A full hedge locks in a small sure profit, and it also throws away the reason you made the bet. If you backed the team at 5.00 because you thought they were better than the price said, and you still think so, hedging all of it sells that edge at the market price.
A partial hedge is usually the better fit:
- Cover your stake: hedge just enough that you don’t lose money, and keep the rest of the upside.
- Bank part of the profit: lock in a figure you’d be happy with, and let the rest ride.
- Hedge in steps: hedge some now, and more as the odds keep moving.
A full hedge makes sense when the position is bigger than you’re comfortable holding, or when you no longer think your side is underpriced.
Where to Hedge: Price Is Everything
A hedge is only as good as the price you get on the other side. The second mistake I see most is ignoring the spread and the fees, which quietly eat what you lock in.
- At a bookmaker: the odds include its margin, so you pay that margin again on the hedge stake. On outrights the margin is often large; in my experience bookmaker futures carry about 10% to 20%. And if you’re a winning bettor, your account may be limited to the point where the hedge isn’t possible.
- At a betting exchange: you bet against other customers and pay a commission on net winnings. I usually hedge at Betfair.
- On Polymarket: prices carry no built-in vig. You pay a small taker fee to trade instantly, or no fee with a limit order.
Hedging with a bookmaker’s cash out is the most expensive option of all. Cash out in betting shows how far below fair value those offers sit.
Hedging a Polymarket Position
On Polymarket you don’t need a second bet. Your position is a number of shares, each paying $1 if your outcome wins, and hedging it simply means selling shares.
Say you bought 500 shares at $0.35 ($175) and the price has risen to $0.80:
- Sell all of them with a market order: you receive $400 minus a taker fee of 500 × 0.05 × 0.80 × 0.20 = $4. That’s $221 locked in.
- Sell half: you’ve locked in $23 even if your outcome loses, and you still make $273 if it wins.
You can also buy the opposite side and merge each Yes and No pair back into $1. That’s what I usually do when I’m not hedging on an exchange. It comes to the same thing as selling Yes, and sometimes the No side’s order book is the better way in. Merging explains how it works.
Before you sell, look at the order book. If the gap between the best bid and best offer is wide, a market order gives away more than the fee. Post a limit order instead and wait for it to fill.
Hedging to Free Up Money
Hedging isn’t only about risk. A position that’s almost certain to win still ties up money until it settles.
Late in the 2026 Formula 1 season I was very long Kimi Antonelli for the Drivers’ Championship. With him trading at $0.998, almost certain to win, I sold my shares at that price. I gave up 0.2¢ a share to have the cash back that day instead of weeks later, and put it into other markets. On a bookmaker the only way to do that is a cash-out offer, at whatever price it chooses.
The Bottom Line
- A full hedge: stake × odds ÷ hedge odds. A partial hedge is often better.
- Hedge where the other side is priced closest to fair: an exchange or Polymarket, not a bookmaker’s cash out.
- Watch the spread and the fee. Use a limit order when you can wait.
Open a Polymarket account here and you can hedge any position by selling it at the market price. Polymarket’s availability depends on where you live, so check your country first.
- Hedge Calculator: full and partial hedges, commission and fees
- Arbitrage Calculator: when two prices lock in a profit from the start
- Futures odds: live Polymarket prices on title and championship markets
- Polymarket Fees: the taker fee formula